Why Consider Assumptions and External Factors?
The Make or Break of Your Program

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More than likely, you have taken a long road trip. In preparation for your road trip, you had a certain checklist of things that had to be considered before you could take off.  First of all, you had a specific set of expectations that 1) your car can make it (mechanically speaking), 2) your tires and their pressure are good, 3) you have sufficient money to cover gas, food, and lodging, 4) the route you have selected is the safest or quickest (whichever is most important to you), and 5) you have accurately calculated how long the trip will take which obviously affects the overall cost of the trip in time and money. But then, there are things outside your own control that you have to think about as they could ultimately make or break your trip. These environmental factors may be things like icy roads, blizzards, hurricanes, etc., depending on where you were traveling and at what time of the year. Other factors, such as road construction, car accidents, and alternate routes, may also unintentionally play into your trip.

Without contemplating all of these things, you may not actually make it to your destination. Yes, you could make it part way, but without sufficient consideration and contingency planning, you could get stranded or have to turn around.

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In this scenario, would you ever consider planning a family vacation without contemplating the possibilities, especially having your littles on board?  Probably not.

In the same way, without contemplating all that you believe about how the project will work (assumptions), as well as what could potentially influence your project outside of your control (external factors), you are setting your program or project up for failure. To mitigate against potential problems, it is critical to think through each of these elements as you are planning and developing your program logic model[1].

When considering your assumptions, reflect on your principles, beliefs, and ideas about the:

  • Problem/situation
  • Resources/staff
  • Way the program will operate
  • Expected program achievements
  • Knowledge base
  • External/internal environment
  • Participants (their behavior, motivations, how they learn, etc.)

A key question to help you process your assumptions is: Why do you believe the planned work will achieve the expected outcome(s)?

When considering your external or environmental factors (surrounding circumstances) reflect on the:

  • Political environment
  • Economic situation
  • Social/cultural context
  • Geographic/natural constraints

A key question to help you process your assumptions is: How can the [insert element above] affect our program and potentially influence our outcome(s)? Influences can be both positive and negative, but either way, they must be considered and accounted for.

Programs, like life, do not happen in a vacuum.  It is often the lack of accurate or overlooked assumptions and external factors that are the basis for program failure or poor results.

Just as you would never consider taking your family on a trip without proper preparation, take the time to work through these elements and develop contingencies for your programs should any of your present factors change. It’s the only way to ensure your program has the greatest chances for success.

[1] Please see our White Paper about Logic Models at http://eliteresearch.com/whitepapers  if you need more information.